Patrick Powell reveals 2018-2019 winter forecast
(WLUK) -- We are only a little more than a half a year since one of the snowiest months on record in our area.
April started with Winter Storm Dan and 9.4" of snow on the 3rd and 4th. That storm alone had us approaching the snow records for the month of April.
Then came Blizzard Evelyn. The 2nd biggest snowstorm on record in Green Bay. Evelyn broke records throughout the area. We broke the all-time record for snow in April shortly after the snow from Evelyn started falling, and the snow continued for two days.
When it was over, We had not only been through our 2nd biggest snowstorm, but also the snowiest April by far, and the 3rd snowiest month on record.
For this much snow to fall so late in the year was astounding, and the records show that.
Previous Winter Forecasts
Forecasting for a season is very difficult because of the very unusual things that can happen and the number of variables involved.
Last year, the winter forecast worked out well, although I was expecting the late season snow in March, not in April.
My winter forecast here at FOX 11 has worked out fairly well over the last 12 years. Six of those winters, the snowfall was right inside the range predicted.Three times the trend of the forecast was right but I was too conservative with the snowfall.
Once the trend of the forecast was right but I was too aggressive with the forecast snowfall.
And twice, the forecast was just wrong. The trend from average was off. Both of those winters we had a positive NAO, that was key in holding snowfall down.
2018-2019 Winter Forecast
My forecast for this winter starts in December where I am expecting above average snowfall and average temperatures.
In January, I am expecting below average snowfall and above average temperatures.
In February, I am expecting below average snowfall and average temperatures.
In March, I am expecting average snowfall and above average temperatures.
Overall for the winter I think we will have slightly below average snowfall with totals between 40 and 50 inches, and above average temperatures, with a quick warm up in spring.
I predict three to five named storms for the season.
FOX 11 meteorologists are busy preparing for winter -- and helping you prepare. The list of winter storm names was revealed last month. Keep watching FOX 11 all week for coverage of Wisconsin's Winter Awareness Week: