Climate Prediction Center: Next few months likely warmer than normal
(WLUK) -- The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center has released its outlook for April, May and June, and Wisconsinites might like what it has to say.
Over this three-month period, the CPC expects a better chance for warmer weather and good chance for precipitation to be around normal.
These outlooks aren’t as intuitive to read as they might seem. They indicate probabilities of above- or below-normal weather, not amounts or magnitudes above or below normal.
For example, the temperature outlook for Northeast Wisconsin is shaded in a color that indicates it has a “40% Probability of Above” normal temperatures.
This doesn’t temperatures will be 40% warmer than normal; rather, this means that there’s 40% better chance than not that we see above-normal temperatures.
Whether that means record-setting heat or temperatures that are only a few degrees warmer than usual isn’t indicated, it’s strictly an assessment of probability.
The precipitation outlook is in the “Equal Chance” area, which means there isn’t a strong sign one way or another -- there are equal probabilities of either outcome (drier than normal vs. wetter than normal) occurring.