Climate Prediction Center: Next few months likely warmer than normal

Temperature probability for April-June 2017. (Image source: Climate Prediction Center)

(WLUK) -- The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center has released its outlook for April, May and June, and Wisconsinites might like what it has to say.

Over this three-month period, the CPC expects a better chance for warmer weather and good chance for precipitation to be around normal.

These outlooks aren’t as intuitive to read as they might seem. They indicate probabilities of above- or below-normal weather, not amounts or magnitudes above or below normal.

For example, the temperature outlook for Northeast Wisconsin is shaded in a color that indicates it has a “40% Probability of Above” normal temperatures.

This doesn’t temperatures will be 40% warmer than normal; rather, this means that there’s 40% better chance than not that we see above-normal temperatures.

Whether that means record-setting heat or temperatures that are only a few degrees warmer than usual isn’t indicated, it’s strictly an assessment of probability.

The precipitation outlook is in the “Equal Chance” area, which means there isn’t a strong sign one way or another -- there are equal probabilities of either outcome (drier than normal vs. wetter than normal) occurring.