President Obama is scheduled to give his State of the Union address Tuesday. Part of the president's four state, post State of the Union tour will be an overnight stop in the Milwaukee area. He will arrive Wednesday and then tour General Electric's Waukesha engine plant Thursday.
President Obama's Wisconsin welcome might not be as warm as he'd like.
A new Marquette University poll shows the president has a 44 percent approval rating and a 50 percent disapproval rating in the state now. That's down from 49 percent approval and 46 percent disapproval in October.
"It is worth nothing that Obama is under water in all but 11 states anyway. So, Wisconsin isn't really an outlier in that sense," explained Lawrence University political science professor Arnold Schober.
Under water, meaning a disapproval rating higher than approval.
Schober also told FOX 11 he believes the main reason for the drop is the troubled federal health insurance enrollment.
"Wisconsin is certainly no different than other states in that regard, in that it's been rocky here. It's been hard to sign up through the federal system. So that has kind of taken a hit," Schober said.
But Schober told us the part of the lower approval might not be about the president, himself.
"Obama is in his sixth year as president. Americans tend to get tired of their presidents, whoever they are, by this time around," said Shober
So will the president be able to change the public's perception in his State of the Union address Tuesday? Don't bet on it.
"They don't change people's perception of the president in the way that, say, newer policies might," Schober explained.
And what do the poll numbers mean for the 2016 presidential election?
According to Schober, if Obama's numbers stay below 50 percent Democratic candidates would likely distance themselves from him, while Republicans would try to use it to their advantage.
"The lower his numbers are, the easier it would be to tie a successor to the, quote, 'Last failed 8 years of the Obama administration.' Just like the Democrats did with George W. Bush," Schober explained.
For some perspective, a Badger poll by the UW-Madison during Bush's sixth year, showed him with a 36 percent approval rating.